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。美国货币当局何时减码,取决于今后几个月的数据,笔者认为九月份启动的机会最高。这无疑是联储政策的一个分水岭,不过对市场的影响却值得推敲。1)联储在考虑的是减少买债而非卖债,2)退出速度一定慢而且随时可以应经济及市场情况而微调,3)利率水平料仍长时间维持在超低水平(哪怕略有上升)。充裕的流动性在可预见的将来不会改变,但是美国债市泡沫已经形成,ugg メンズ,UGG ブーツ アウトレット,联储的举动会不会触发债市大上周最大的故事,アグ モカシン,当属日本股市的暴挫。日本央行决定不加大国债购买量,行长黑田甚至指出经济改善导致利率上扬很正常。尽管日银随后试图修正其言论,日股、日债齐跌。日本股市今年以来已升近五成,アグ ブーツ,UGG ブーツ 店舗,股价的飙升远远超过企业盈利经济复苏可能带来的好处,市场出现获利回吐很正常;而且杠杆式投机盘众多,一旦回调跌势凶猛亦很正常。不过此次股灾也暴露出安倍经济学的软肋调整,亟待观察。本周重要数据和会议不多。美国第一季度增长可能被下方修正0.1点至2.4%,不过民间活动比初期测算更活跃。密执根消费信心指数预计继续上升。加拿大央行例会,政策利率应该不变。欧洲的货币数据值得关注,尤其是塞浦路斯拯救计划之后的存款走势。日本的失业率预料不降反升。中国的官方PMI是大宗商品市场的聚焦。(本栏每星期日在此博客刊出,周一9:30am主要内容会在央视2台交易时间中出现。以上观点仅为个人对市场的看法,UGG ブーツ 正規品,UGG ブーツ 正規品,并非任何投资劝诱或建议。)---债市。如果经济有起色,国债利率上扬是自然的。如果通胀如愿升起,国债利率上扬也是自然的。这是JGB十年期国债收益率由0.4%极度动荡的一周,风险意识激活的一周。上周三大事件夹击风险资产,美国联储首度明确表示在考虑减少国债购买,日本JGB遭到抛售触发套利交易败退,中国PMI显示经济出现新的下滑。股市、债市、石油、黄金和大宗商品同告调整。瑞信风险意识指数大幅波动,天堂货币瑞士法郎受到追捧,商品货币澳元再挫,日元汇率因套利盘平仓而急剧反弹。上周最大的故事,当属日本股市的暴挫。日本央行决定不加大国债购买量,行长黑田甚至指出经济改善导致利率上扬很正常。尽管日银随后试图修正其言论,日股、日债齐跌。日本股市今年以来已升近五成,股价的飙升远远超过企业盈利经济复苏可能带来的好处,市场出现获利回吐很正常,UGG ブーツ 人気,UGG ブーツ アウトレット;而且杠杆式投机盘众多,アグ モカシン,一旦回调跌势凶猛亦很正常
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